Elliott Wave Analysis, EURUSD in focus

In our opinion EURUSD is still in a higher degree correction which may slowly come to an end (a monthly chart). The 4 hour chart shows that the pair is forming a diagonal pattern which may be a sign of a trend weakening which can lead to at least 23.6% or 32.8% correction in the first step. EURUSD monthly

EURUSD H4

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Elliott Wave Analysis 05/05/2017

GBP/USD
The triangle forming over the previous 6 months has finally been broken. The move to the upside goes against our analysis from last month, which suggested that the triangle would form wave (4) and break to the down side. However, our outlook for GBPUSD remains bearish. The latest move suggests that the triangle forms only B of wave (4), as opposed to the whole of wave (4). A declining wave (5) should follow, leading to a new low beneath 1.1949.
GBPUSD_May_2017

EUR/USD
EURUSD finished April by recovering some ground from the sharp drop by wave (1). However, as with GBPUSD, our outlook for the pair is still bearish. It now appears that wave (2) is forming an expanded flat wave. The overlapping rise from 1.0339 suggests that wave C is finishing on a diagonal. If this is the case, we are looking at a ceiling of 1.0986. However, as we have the French Election coming in, we are also taking into account that the price may go to 1.1093 (corresponding to a Fibonacci level of 78.6%) before EURUSD continues it’s decline.
EURUSD_May_2017

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Elliott Wave Analysis 04/04/2017

EUR/USD
Our view of the EURUSD remains bearish, although we have adjusted the count since our last post.  The current three wave rally that started at 1.0347 should complete soon and signals the continuation of the downwards trend.  Wave (3) should travel around 1.618 the distance of wave (1), which assuming a wave C peak of 1.0892 would place the target in the region of 0.9340.
EURUSD_Apr_2017

GBP/USD
The triangle that is currently unfolding is near completion.  The wave (5) should finish in the region of 1.19828, at the lowest level since May 1895.  The pair may continue to descend, which may suggest the next objective is the all-time low of 1.0345.
GBPUSD_Apr_2017
market-analysis-london-trader

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Elliott Wave Analysis 11/01/2017

EUR/USD
EUR/USD broke to the down side of a 2 year triangle in December, which has lead to a 14 year low for the pair.  The downwards trend is now in the third wave of the pattern, which should see the pair travel a similar distance to the first wave, bringing it to parity.  However, it is possible that wave (3) could travel 1.618 times the distance of wave (1), which would put EUR/USD into the region of 0.9600.

eurusd_jan_2017

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has seen a rally to the region of wave 4 (around 1.2800-1.3430), but this is likely to be part of a larger correction.  The pair may develop into a flat, which will test the 1.2038, before forming a wave (5) that breaks the 1.2038 level to achieve a new low.

 

gbpusd_jan_2017

 

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Elliott Wave Analysis 09/12/2016

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is now in a down trend, having finished a Primary wave B. The pair broke to the down side of a 2 year triangle on the news of Donald Trump’s surprise win of the U.S. presidential election. It is now starting a Primary C wave, which should eventually move the euro below parity with the dollar.

eurusd_dec_2016

GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is currently in a corrective wave (4) of a 5 wave pattern, which may see sterling recover against the dollar to around 1.2800-1.3480 from a low of 1.1949. The pair should then reverse and break the 1.1949 low as it forms wave (5).

gbpusd_dec_2016

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Elliott Wave Analysis 19/10/2015

EUR/USD

EURUSD_2015_19_10

The EUR/USD decline has completely erased its rally from March.  Assuming wave ((c)) meets the even the minimum proportionality to ((a)), we should see the pair continue to decline and move significantly below parity.

 

GBP/USD

GBPUSD_2015_10_19

Cable is trading at its lowest levels since June and the decline looks set to continue with a third-of-third wave movement.  The completion of wave ((3)) should see cable trading beneath the 1.35 figure last traded in 2009.

 

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The EUR/USD, GBP/USD and GOLD

The EURUSD broke below support trading at 1.3600 level after the pair hit 23.6 Fibonacci level at 1.3640 during Asian trading session. It seems that euro will most likely be easing off ahead of ECB rates cut decision this week.

A break below 1.3600 should cause further fall down to 1.3550 from which level the pair might consolidate. A decisive break above 1.3640 will trigger rally back up to 1.3700 rate.

The Euro is trading just above projected trading low for today, which is 1.3590, and already executed projected high of 1.3640. MACD and RSI are heavily bearish. Pivot level is trading at 1.3625 level and 200 SMA is trading at 1.3640 level, strengthening key resistance and opportunity to sell.

Today we have many inflation data releases, Manufacturing PMI has missed the expectations by 0.3 and came in at 52.2. Later today we have Treasury Secretary Lew speech in regards to economic policy. This will be followed by Purchasing Mangers’ Index from the institute for Supply Management expected to come in very positively at 55.7.

The GBP/USD Forecast June 02, 2014
The GBPUSD has entered bearish sentiment heading down to 1.6700. The 50 SMA caught possible rally at 1.6770 on Friday. Main outlook though still remain bullish.

A break below 1.6700 low will cause further drop down to 1.6425. On the other hand, consolidation above this level could be expected as well, followed by further appreciation in the currency.

Some analysts are expecting to see the rate of 1.8000 by the end of the year 2015 and based on technical, this is definitely not out of the picture. Sterling has been bullish currency for a while now and price action on Monthly chart suggests that bullish sentiment against the U.S. dollar could be ahead.

On the other hand, decline to 61.8 Fibonacci level is expected as well before any rally up to the 1.8000 level can be triggered.

Projected daily trading range is between 1.6700 and 1.6800. MACD and RSI are slightly bearish. Daily candle even though has opened in a bearish mood, it is trading above support level, so the reversal is still in the picture. The 50 SMA might be though good resistance level at 1.6775, not letting cable against greenback to appreciate. Pivot level is trading just below it at 1.6750.

Today we had Manufacturing PMI that came in below expectations, but still optimistic at 57.0. We also had disappointment from Net Lending data release that came in at 2.4B and M4 Money Supply that came in at negative 0.2 per cent.

Ahead we still have the U.S. Treasure Secretary Lew speech at 1.40pm, followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to improve and Final Manufacturing PMI expected to remain.
The Gold Forecast June 02, 2014

The Gold found support at $1240 per troy ounce after taking some losses last week. At the moment is trading very neutral. A decisive break below this support will cause further fall down to $1200 per troy ounce with a stop at $1220 per troy ounce. Otherwise there is nothing what should stay in the way of its value decline.

If key support of $1240 per troy ounce manages to hold this week, appreciation back to the price and 61.8 Fibonacci level of $1267 per troy ounce is expected.

Today though might be a bit quiet or bullish for Gold. Global tension has eased off and the economy seems to be on recovery from a winter slowdown.

Projected daily trading range is between $1232 per troy ounce and $1260 per troy ounce. Pivot level is trading at $1250 per troy ounce. A break above will bring Gold back to being bullish. MACD and RSI are bearish. The 200 and 50 SMA has crossed on daily chart, signalling bearish sentiment ahead.

All technical indicators suggest that bearish sentiment should be to continue. Let’s just not forget that this is a bullish market and when investors find opportunity to buy cheap, they are in at the earliest opportunity, pushing the value back up.
Petra Kuraliova, Market Analyst at Tradenext Ltd.